Xi Jinping likes the Greek analogy because he thinks China is the rising power and the U.S. in decline. He might think twice about that.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n “His real point was warning Mr. Trump not to risk a war by interfering with China\u2019s designs to retake Taiwan\u2014by force if necessary.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Thucydides was the great ancient historian of the Peloponnesian War, and he argued that a rising Athens frightened Sparta and led to war. Harvard political scientist Graham Allison popularized what he called the \u201cThucydides trap\u201d by identifying a dozen times in history when a rising power threatened an established power and war resulted. World War I was an example as a rising Germany threatened Britain as Europe\u2019s leading power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Getting what Mr. Xi likes about the analogy? In his reading, China is the rising power and America the hegemon fearful of being surpassed. He is warning Mr. Trump in pointed terms not to interfere with China\u2019s ambitions or the result could be a destructive war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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The U.S. long assisted China\u2019s rise by letting it join the World Trade Organization and hoping it would abide by liberal international rules. Mr. Xi is the leader threatening to use force in the Asia-Pacific, especially in Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Mr. Xi told Mr. Trump that \u201cthe Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-U.S. relations,\u201d according to reports on the summit exchange. \u201cIf it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. …<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But a war over Taiwan today wouldn\u2019t be an accident of mutual suspicion. It would be a decision by Mr. Xi\u2014a gamble that the U.S. wouldn\u2019t intervene in a blockade, a military assault or seizure of Taiwan\u2019s outlying islands. Mr. Xi is the only one chipping away at peace with his blockade dress rehearsals, cyber attacks and much more. Taiwan simply wants to continue not living under the boot of the Chinese Communist Party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Mr. Trump reportedly said nothing in response to Mr. Xi\u2019s Thucydides play, which we hope is a good sign. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is in Beijing with Mr. Trump, told NBC that \u201cthey always raise [Taiwan] on their side,\u201d but \u201cwe always make clear our position and we move on to other topics.\u201d He added that it would be a \u201cterrible mistake\u201d if China were to take Taiwan by force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Speaking of Thucydides and traps, one risk is that Mr. Xi really believes China is a rising power that can become a new Middle Kingdom in which everyone else is a vassal state. His economy depends too much on exports for jobs, the country is aging fast, and its military hasn\u2019t fought a real war in decades. He might fall into his own trap if he thinks the U.S. really is in decline enough for China to risk a war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Maybe not. Xi Jinping likes the Greek analogy because he thinks China is the rising power and the U.S. in decline. He might think twice about that. “His real point was warning Mr. Trump not to risk a war by interfering with China\u2019s designs to retake Taiwan\u2014by force if necessary.” ************** Thucydides was the great […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16267","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics-and-politics","category-international-stuff"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tomfarandasfolly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16267","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tomfarandasfolly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tomfarandasfolly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tomfarandasfolly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tomfarandasfolly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16267"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/tomfarandasfolly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16267\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16268,"href":"https:\/\/tomfarandasfolly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16267\/revisions\/16268"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tomfarandasfolly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16267"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tomfarandasfolly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16267"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tomfarandasfolly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16267"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}