The pattern on the referendums we tracked is clear: all three poverty-reduction measures passed, as did the removal of the exception for abolishing slavery (crime conviction). Tennessee passed that with almost 80%!
But all the abortion-related measures came out different from our hopes. The “no right” to abortion amendments had a perfect track record pre-Dobbs, when the context was defiance of judicial imposition. Post-Dobbs, the context is whether or not people have rights. The framing suffers. Abortion joins the death penalty as an issue where simple referendums may not be the best strategy.
We offer some ideas for referendums that may work better, especially a Positive Protection Approach.
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